Will There Be A Military Conflict Between India And China in 2022?
Recent events along the LAC (Line of Actual Control) have raised eyebrows of the security establishment and brought the focus back on the Ladakh standoff. For two years since the Galwan valley clash, the region did not witness much activity. But suddenly things have accelerated. Chinese fighter jets have entered the Ladakh standoff as a pressure tactic to coerce India into submission. PLA planes have been buzzing over the India-China border coming too close to the LAC, the de facto border between India and China.
China first flew jets over Taiwan, and now it is trying to provoke India by replicating the same military strategy towards India. This has happened multiple times. Beijing is building a new highway in the disputed Aksai Chin region, and this has raised the specter of a fierce military confrontation between the two nuclear-powered nations.
India Air Force has responded by scrambling its own fighter jets every time a Chinese fighter jet came too close to the LAC for comfort. India is also in the process of deploying the Russia air defense system S-400 along the LAC. China is resorting to the same tactics that it uses against Taiwan—to keep keep the pot boiling by aggressive maneuvers. It is also strengthening its defences near the LAC. Multiple rounds of talks have failed to achieve a breakthrough, and China is now indulging in fresh provocations.
Recent weeks have been tense. Chinese forces have been challenging India, and the PLA is known for this. Military strategists refer to the PLA’s behavior as grey zone tactics. In military parlance, grey zone tactics is a style of warfare which entails a provocative show of force that is just short of launching a full-fledged war but massive enough to keep a conflict alive. China uses such tactics frequently against Taiwan. It sends the military for drills. It flies its jets into Taiwan’s air defence zone.
China is doing the same with India. Recently, Chinese jets started flying near the LAC in Eastern Ladakh. The PLA has done this several times. In some instances, the Chinese have violated the confidence-building measure line. According to the confidence building measure agreement, the Chinese jets cannot fly within a 10-km radius of the LAC. This is a free zone created with mutual agreement, which both sides cannot enter. This was agreed upon as an attempt to reduce tension and build confidence. The PLA jets must stay behind this line, but they have not maintained the sanctity of this line and have repeatedly breached it.
The Chinese J-11 fighter jets have been part of this operation. The J-11 is an air superiority fighter designed to seize control of the skies by establishing air supremacy. By using the J-11 near the LAC, the Chinese are sending a message that they have superior air power than India. This sudden aggressive behavior of the Chinese Air Force has baffled the security experts of the country as the Chinese Air Force was not known to indulge in such shenanigans in the past.
In response, the Indian Air Force has deployed some of its most lethal jet fighters like the French-made Mirage-2000 and the Russian-origin Mig-29 along the LAC. India too is boosting its defences in this region. The plan is to add the Russian-made S-400 missile air defence system. It will be operational in about two to three months. The S-400 can detect hostile fighters and neutralize strategic bombers and drones and missiles. It can hit a target at long range. But this is not enough.
India needs to pull up its socks when it comes to defence preparedness as China is challenging India’s sovereignty not only in the skies but also in the land. The Galwan valley skirmish is a very good reminder of this. Of late, China has built a new highway in Aksai Chin called the G695 National Expressway connecting Xinjiang with Tibet. China had already built a highway called G219 in Aksai Chin in the 1950s. It caused a lot of controversy then. The new highway is going to evoke similar sentiments among the security hawks of the country because it is being built on territory that India claims as its own.
Aksai Chin is a disputed territory between India and China, and any construction here tantamounts to violation of India’s sovereignty. Moreover, the route of this proposed new highway has rung alarm bells among the defence forces as it is speculated to pass through disputed areas like Depsang Plains, the Hot Springs and the Galwan Valley. These areas are the center of India’s ongoing border standoff with China, and Beijing plans to build a highway near them. This gives the indication that China is not interested in settling the border standoff peacefully. It never had any intention of de-escalating anytime soon.
With Chinese jets intruding into Indian airspace and new infrastructure coming up near disputed areas, China is clearly trying to up the ante in a skillful display of pressure tactics as part of grey zone warfare to keep these conflicts alive.
The world is worried and taken aback by Chinese actions. The US is alarmed by these developments and calls them aggressive posturing by the PLA. It is also reported that China is developing a new stealth fighter jet much like the F-35 of the US to further sharpen its military edge over its adversaries. Rising tensions with the US over the independence of Taiwan has intensified the arms race between the US and China.
India is watching these developments very closely while mulling its options against any eventuality. There are also reports of a new road being built linking China to Doklam in Bhutan overseeing the Siliguri Corridor thus endangering India’s connectivity to the Northeast.
Amidst all these shenanigans, Chinese President Xi Jinping has sent a congratulatory message to the newly-elected President of India, Draupadi Murmu. In his letter, Xi Jinping expressed his desire to work with India and enhance mutual trust, reminiscent of the old but deceptive “hindi-chini bhai bhai” slogan. The stalemate cannot end without China disengaging completely. Like all things Chinese, we have to take Xi’s letter with a pinch of salt without letting down our guard. We are surely living in “interesting times.”
edited and proofread by nikita sharma
