Power Play In Pakistan: Imran’s Innings Are Coming To An End, But Nawaz Won’t Bat in 2021
Islamabad is abuzz with talk of ‘regime change and power.’ The Imran chapter is nearing its end, according to political pundits.
It seems that everyone is eagerly awaiting the conclusion. Imran Khan may call a joint session of parliament to pass controversial legislation aimed at rigging the next election, or it may be postponed for days, weeks, or even a month.
There is a lot of intrigue, deception, betrayal, and last-minute surprises in the finale of each season of Pakistan’s Game of Thrones, just like in Balaji Telefilms‘ soap operas. There are times when the protagonist pulls off a Houdini act; other times, the protagonist sinks.
A Game Of Chicken
Every side has some cards to play in this game of Chicken. To undo Imran‘s disaster in Pakistan, the Pakistan Army must reach a deal with the opposition. When his term ends, it is unthinkable to imagine him running, or even ruining, Pakistan for two more years. He thinks that the Army is at its wits end over Imran and needs a deal with the opposition to solve the problem.
In Imran’s opinion, the Army will have an adamant time pulling him down if they attempt to do so. Pakistan’s political landscape could be a pig’s breakfast if he removes the Army chief or dissolves the National Assembly.
However, Imran will have a right to think that he is the only option the Army has. Spats like the one over the ISI chief appointment won’t change the military’s dependence on him, leading to increased obdurate behaviour.
The Pakistan Army doesn’t take Imran Khan’s removal too seriously. Imran Khan doesn’t have the advantage of the numbers. In the meantime, the Army could do without a messy operation that leaves them in the dark about what will happen later. It’s time to resolve two issues.
It is crucial to understand what will happen after Imran Khan has been removed and the following steps to get rid of him. Next, we have the future political road map and who would play what role in the medium term, i.e. after the next election.
Both of these matters have yet to be settled, so the military may use today’s Joint Session to set an example to the opposition. Imran will also learn that the military relies on his support to survive.
The Googlies
Despite the broad agreement between the military and the opposition about holding an early election in 2022 rather than the third quarter of 2023, there are still many loose ends to be addressed.
What will happen if Imran Khan loses the election? Will the National Assembly be dissolved, a caretaker administration put in place, and fresh elections held three years later? When the next government is formed, who will lead it?
The PTI (Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf), the PPP (Pakistan Peoples Party), or any dark horse everyone will agree on? During the tenure of the National Assembly, will this in-house change speak until the end of its term in August 2023, or will it only mind the shop, agree on a caretaker government and hold elections by March and April 2022? The provincial assemblies are dissolved; what happens to them? In addition to the National Assembly, will they also be dissolved and re-elected?
There is something wrong with holding simultaneous elections for the national and provincial assemblies in Pakistan. Is it possible to hold national and Punjab assemblies elections in 2022 and let the other local bodies expire in 2023?
Could the PPP, now a provincial party, agree to a Sindh election before the end of the year? Can Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa be included? This question has not been resolved. Also outstanding is what will happen after the elections in which Nawaz Sharif’s PML-N will probably win and take over. How will Nawaz Sharif and his daughter Maryam be involved in the new government?
There is a life disqualification for Nawaz Sharif. Even though it’s clear that these were Kangaroo courts that led to his and Maryam’s convictions in corruption cases, it still won’t end his disqualification, which is on entirely different grounds.
The Army does not accept Maryam’s appointment as Prime Minister. The Supreme Court will overturn Nawaz Sharif’s disqualification. There is a possibility that a deal with Shahbaz, Nawaz’s brother, could be reached. Nawaz has a reputation for being a good administrator.
Additionally, he never upsets members of the military. Shahbaz does not enjoy the kind of public support that Nawaz or Maryam do. Nawaz will allow Shahbaz to run the government, or will he act in a backseat and try to sway policy, particularly on issues the Army considers its own?
Before he agrees to a deal, will he demand the Army resign from the political arena? He surely knows that the Army will only withdraw from political intrusion if they agree to exit.
Will Nawaz Play Safe?
Nawaz Sharif might return to Pakistan to lead his party as the backroom deals are being worked out. However, will he return while Imran Khan still holds the office of prime minister? Nawaz would go straight to jail once he lands in Pakistan, so that seems unlikely.
During his medical treatment abroad, he was serving a jail sentence. Now he has been declared an absconder by the courts. It isn’t a secret that Nawaz Sharif’s party’s DNA is not agitative, which would make Imran Khan cower in fear and pour in the towel if he returns and galvanizes his supporters to do TLP-style marches.
The only way for Islamabad to change is through intrigues in the palace, for which London is a far better place than Lahore. There is a possibility that Nawaz Sharif will return, but probably only after Imran leaves.
In that case, he will probably spend a few months in a luxurious prison until the corruption cases for which he is being tried are declared a mistrial, and he is allowed to go free. Now, enjoy the latest episode of Pakistani political soap opera’s latest season as you hang on to your seats. However, who knows if, like in a Balaji Telefilms show, the scriptwriters will extend the viewers’ agony if they end this episode in an anti-climax.
edited and proofread by nikita sharma
