INDIA RUSSIA SING “YEH DOSTI HUM NAHI TODENGE”
“A friend in need is a friend indeed” is a very wise maxim, but nowhere is this old adage more applicable than Indo-Russian friendship which has stood the test of time. It has been 70 years since India first established diplomatic relationship with the erstwhile Soviet Union.
The beginning of the relationship was rather tepid under Stalin who did not think very high of Indian leaders, namely Gandhi and Nehru. This changed when Khrushchev became the Soviet premier after the death of Stalin.
He provided the much-needed traction to this relationship. It began with economic cooperation and slowly extended to defence cooperation. Moscow recognized and upheld Indian sovereignty on Kashmir. Moscow also maintained neutrality during the 1962 war with China. It was evident again in the year 1965 in Tashkent.
The Soviet Union played the role of a neutral interlocutor and helped bring the 1965 war with Pakistan to a dignified closure without any country having to lose face.
The formal relationship got transformed into a strong bond of mutual trust and friendship in the year 1971. That was the year when India and Pakistan went to war over the humanitarian crisis in East Pakistan. Formidable forces were arrayed against India.
Superior fighter aircrafts from France, Jordan and Turkey were bolstering the Pakistan Air Force. The United States of America and the United Kingdom were providing moral and naval support to the Pakistani military.
The United States had dispatched its Seventh Fleet stationed at Diego Garcia towards the shores of Bay of Bengal, and the United Kingdom sent its warships to the Arabian Sea. It was a coordinated plan to intimidate and coerce India to submission in a classic display of gunboat diplomacy. To counter these menacing threats, India needed a formidable friend whose presence would deter these adversaries from indulging in any kind of military adventurism against India.
Not many responded to help India. But the Soviet Union was different. They stepped in and the entire scenario changed. The Soviet Union dispatched a fleet of nuclear submarines from Vladivostok towards the Bay of Bengal.
They threw a security cordon around India thus preventing the American and British ships from entering its territorial waters in the Indian Ocean. This gave the Indian Navy enough leverage to enforce a naval blockade of East Pakistan and the rest as they say is history. Bangladesh was created and India asserted itself as a major geopolitical power in South Asia.
America continued to provide moral, financial and geopolitical support to Pakistan whereas the Soviet Union stood firmly by India. Moscow has stood by India through thick and thin and has been one of India’s most dependable partners.
India benefitted immensely from this friendship and used it as a leverage to navigate its way through the muddy waters of international geopolitics. Moscow backed India during the Pokhran nuclear tests while the United States imposed sanctions both in 1974 as well as in 1998.
This tango between Moscow and New Delhi continued even after the disintegration of the Soviet Union albeit with some intermittent hiccups.
Today, Russia represents the erstwhile Soviet Union, and this week Vladimir Putin, the President of Russia, arrived in New Delhi for the traditional annual summit to further strengthen the ties. This is his ninth visit to India since he became the president of Russia and also the shortest lasting only five hours.
Prime Minister Modi and Putin have met 19 times at different forums since Mr. Modi took over as the Prime Minister of India.
This whirlwind dash to India has a salient geopolitical message in it. Mr. Vladimir Putin is facing many challenges at home ranging from Corona pandemic to Russia’s face-off with NATO at the Ukraine border. Mr. Putin needs to count on his friends at this time.
The visit is a sign that he counts India as a reliable friend and wants to bolster the bilateral relationship. The visit is more than the sum of its parts.
Vladimir Putin comes to India not just to sustain a traditional relationship but to further deepen the bilateral partnership and chalk out a path for a shared future. The visit will be accompanied by a 2+2 ministerial meeting between the defence and foreign ministers of the two countries.
Up to ten bilateral agreements are to be signed between India and Russia during this visit. High on agenda is a 10-year pact on defence cooperation between the two countries, which indicates that India is going to continue to purchase Russian weapons despite CAATSA.
India and Russia are also going to sign a deal for manufacturing of AK-203 assault rifles for the Indian army soldiers in India. Bilateral trade between India and Russia stands at over $8 billion. The plan is to take bilateral trade to $25 billion by 2025.
Indian and Russia have been collaborating with each other on international forums like SCO, BRICS, UN and G20.
India is the second-largest market for the Russian military industry. Together, India and Russia have launched many weapons development programs like BrahMos supersonic cruise missile. India has also leased Russian nuclear submarines like the Akula.
India recently purchased the S-400 air defence missile system and previously had purchased an aircraft carrier INS Vikramaditya from Russia. India risked American sanctions to purchase the S-400.
This has given a boost to the trust level between the two nations. Russia was apprehensive about India’s growing proximity with the USA, its arch rival, especially after the formation of the QUAD.
The significance of the visit cannot be underestimated as it is the second time President Putin is stepping out of Russia this year, the pandemic notwithstanding. He skipped the G20 summit this year as well as the climate summit COP26 in Glasgow while rescheduling his trip to China.
The symbolism is unmistakable. It is a clear message to China that Russia still has abiding interest in its relationship with India. It was Russia that brought India into SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organization) in a bid to counter China.
Russia’s relationship with China has undergone a sea change with increasing asymmetry between the two nations. China’s economy is 10 times that of Russia. This has made Russia look like a junior partner to China, an image that Russia is very uncomfortable with. Russia thinks a more robust relationship with India which is the sixth-largest economy in the world can give a fillip to this shortcoming.
China’s growing stature economically and militarily is diminishing Russia’s stature geopolitically. China’s growing ambitions and America’s ever-expanding alliances are putting Russia in a geopolitical spot.
Russia’s recent military buildup along the border with Ukraine has pitted it against USA as this is severely opposed by USA and NATO. Russia wants to feel reassured at this time that it can rely on India as a friend. This is good news for India though there is a need to iron out the emerging wrinkles in the relationship.
Russia is cozying up to China whereas India is perceived to be moving into the American geopolitical orbit with QUAD and signing of foundational security agreements with USA like LEMOA and COMCASA. The present visit is also a subtle acceptance of this reality, and the fact that both countries are willing to work around it.
edited and proofread by nikita sharma
To sum it up, the Indo-Russia bhai-bhai bonhomie continues and will play an important role in providing balance of power in an increasingly volatile international geopolitics.
edited and proofread by nikita sharma
