India’s economy is expected to grow very fast, at 6.7%, by 2022, followed by China. However, its growth will accelerate by 2021, the Wednesday of the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD).
In its TDR 2021, UNCTAD said the Indian economy is expected to grow 7.2% by 2021, the second-highest in the world after China, but growth will drop to 6.7% by 2022. epidemics and job creation and income growth, growth in 2021 total are estimated at 7.2%, which is enough to restore the pre-Covid-19 wage rate, “said UNCTAD.
It also said that the scepticism of some developed economies following the US lead in vaccination is a worrying and costly sign. India’s growth comes amidst 5.3% global growth estimates, the fastest rate in about 50 years. It appears to be down 3.6% in 2022.
According to the report, India, which experienced a 7% decline in 2020, showed strong quarterly growth of 1.9% in the first quarter of 2021, after the second half of 2020, and supported the government spending on goods and services. It also noted that the second-worst and most unexpected wave of the epidemic, compounded by the vaccine crisis, had hit the country in the second quarter, in addition to rising food prices and general inflation, forcing widespread closure and over-utilization and investment reforms.
“Income inequality and wealth have increased, and civil strife has intensified,” said a Geneva-based organization. In the future, considering the recurrence of the epidemic to the extent that the second wave has been found, the revitalization of private-sector jobs, which is still dependent on the gradual restoration of employment, is likely to be accompanied by a worsening policy situation, in particular forward financial and ongoing pressures on the trade balance. “Under these circumstances, the economy is expected to decline to 6.7% by 2022,” the statement said.
UNCTAD stressed that consumer inflation was already 6% before the epidemic, and the Covid-19 shock caused inflation. Still, as the economy recovers and food prices rise, the country returns to 6% inflation in the middle of the crisis. -2021.
Withdrawal of TRIPS in support of the proposed withdrawal of the Trade-Related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights (TRIPS) agreement on vaccines, treatment, and diagnostics of the World Trade Organization, UNCTAD said this was “the first necessary step to allow the production of local medicines”.
UNCTAD has been opposed other developed economies, whose protection of the interests of large corporations cause new divisions in the global economy based on vaccines and freedom of movement despite temporary support from the US.
“The skepticism of some developed economies following the US lead in vaccination is not just a worrying signal of a rift in the North; it is very costly for an economy that already has financial problems,” said the UN. According to the latest estimate, the cost of delayed vaccinations, by 2025, will reach $ 2.3 trillion while developing countries bear the brunt of those costs.
UNCTAD has proposed joint debt relief and even cancellation in some cases; a re-examination of the role of monetary policy in the global economy; greater integration of approach across all major economies; and the courageous support of developing countries in the distribution of vaccines.
It has sought US support for the new SDR allocation, global corporate tax cuts, and VTO-related intellectual property rights revocation to intensify hyper-globalization and resolve the ongoing environmental crisis.
The finance ministry said equipped with the necessary resources for macro and micro growth, India is on track to become the world’s fastest-growing economy.
Primary immunizations and crowded festivals will undermine India’s continued recovery leading to reduced inequalities in service delivery and more significant job opportunities, such as the monthly Economic review prepared by the department.
“The Aatmanirbhar Bharat Mission, which includes major structural reforms, continues to play an essential role in shaping the resilience of the Indian economy, both in terms of business opportunities and the expansion of investment channels.
“Equipped with the necessary resources to promote small and medium-sized growth, the platform is set for India’s investment cycle to launch and promote its resilience in becoming the world’s fastest growing economy,” the review said. The Economic Survey 2020-21, released in January this year, revealed a GDP growth of 11 per cent for the fiscal year ending March 2022.
The survey said growth would be supported by a supply-side push from changes and simplification of policies, pushing infrastructure investment, boosting the production sector through the Production-Linked Incentive (PLI) program, which follows the issuance of vaccines and debt consolidation.
According to the Confederation of All India Traders, India’s economic recovery gathered momentum over the festive season, recording Diwali sales of ₹ 1.3 lakh crore and improving the status of COVID-19 between the high business and consumer spirits brought about a stable economic recovery by October 2021 again. However, the global economic recovery continues to negatively impact due to long-term supply problems and rising import costs, he said.
However, in its October 2021 review, the IMF predicts global growth rates of 5.8 per cent by 2021 and 4.9 per cent by 2022, resulting in solid growth in international trade, by volume, by 9.7 per cent and 6.7 per cent. , respectively. The October World Trade Organization forecast confirms positive trade opportunities supported by the resurgence of global economic activity and vaccination.
Article Proofread and Edited by Shreedatri Banerjee