Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Goa and Manipur together echo “Phir Ek Bar, Modi Sarkar.” Is 2024 a done deal for the BJP and PM Modi?
The recently-held assembly elections in the five states and their results have given a thumping majority to BJP in four of the five states, bringing the incumbent governments back to the office. They have all bucked the anti-incumbency trend that was the norm in these states.
Riding on the immense popularity and goodwill of Prime Minister Modi, whose Teflon-coated image does not allow any allegation to stick to him, the incumbent state governments managed to get a full majority in their assemblies even though they were facing headwinds as far as their governance record was concerned.
Prime Minister Modi’s clean image coupled with a hard-to-emulate muscular oratory and his welfare policies seems to have won the day for the BJP in these states. It seems the BJP has used the trident of Hindutva, nationalism and efficient delivery of welfare as a political weapon against which the opposition has no defence.
This has forced political pundits to acknowledge that Indian politics has reached an inflexion point where the political narrative has undergone a paradigm shift. A watershed moment in the history of Indian electoral politics has arrived where Hindutva seems to have reached a point of no return.
Henceforth, it seems no political party would dare to contest election without involving nationalism and Hindutva of some sort into its political narrative. This tectonic shift in the political vocabulary has far-reaching consequences for the country, but for the moment, the mantle of victory rests comfortably on the BJP.
No wonder, as they have been saying all this while, Holi arrived earlier for them.
A state-by-state analysis is warranted to understand the undercurrents of this new political phenomenon which has completely shocked the opposition, namely the Congress and decimated it completely. A revival seems unlikely in the near future.
Yogi Aditynath was chosen as the Chief Minister of Uttar Pradesh by Mr. Modi himself in the year 2017 when the BJP swept to power riding the Modi wave.
In the five years that Yogi Adityanath was the Chief Minister, he focused primarily on improving the law and order situation in the state. He managed to put a lid on the general lawlessness prevailing in the state due to the patronage received by anti-social elements from previous governments, particularly the SP.
This came as a great relief to the people in general and the women in particular. Teenage girls could now go out of their homes to attend college or to do anything else without being harassed by rowdies on the streets.
The Romeo squads roaming on the streets ensured that nobody outraged the modesty of women anywhere on the streets or market place. He put leaders of organized crimes and crime syndicates behind bars who previously enjoyed political patronage. He demolished many illegal buildings constructed on occupied lands by these goons, thus earning for himself the sobriquet of “Bulldozer Baba.”
Apart from this, the women of the household got free ration for the last 18 months as there was lockdown due to Covid. This endeared Yogi to the women folk of the state notwithstanding the anger and the flak he received for mishandling the situation when the pandemic first broke out in the second wave. He also allowed the Kumbh Mela to take place, which became a super-spreader event further exacerbating the intensity of the pandemic.
The farmer agitation also threatened to derail the government, especially the incident where the son of the MoS (Home) ran over farmers who were agitating against the farm laws. Luckily, good sense prevailed and the Prime Minister unilaterally withdrew the contentious farm laws.
Keeping all these things in mind, the general expectation was that Yogi would return but with substantially reduced numbers.
It was then that the Prime Minister stepped in and campaigned extensively for Yogi throughout the length and breadth of the state, thus catapulting the party to a record second consecutive majority in the elections thereby creating history.
Yogi is the only Chief Minister of Uttar Pradesh to have come back with full majority after completing a full five-year term.
The story is pretty similar in Uttarakhand. The BJP had changed three Chief Ministers in the state in the last five years because none of them were performing well. This had created a trust deficit among the people for the BJP.
It was expected that the Congress would be able to en-cash this situation to its advantage and be able to form the government there. Harish Rawat of the Congress was the most favored Chief Ministerial candidate among the voters. Contrary to all of this, the BJP came back with a full majority even though the seating Chief Minister lost his election from his constituency.
The victory is solely attributed to the immense popularity of Prime Minister Modi, and the voter’s faith in him that he would see to it that development takes place there.
The Northeast traditionally has been the forte of the Congress, but PM Modi’s popularity along with the good work done by the incumbent Chief Minister Biren Singh, got the BJP elected for a second consecutive term in Manipur. The Congress was the default mode in these regions.
The only other competitor was CPM. Both of them have been decimated in these elections. Assam Chief Minister Hemanta Biswa Sharma played a key role in this victory as he is the BJP in-charge for the Northeast. Biren Singh will be sworn in as the CM once again.
In Goa, there was huge anti-incumbency against the Chief Minister Pramod Sawant, and there was expectation that the Congress would form the government as it was prevented from doing so the last time due to poaching of MLAs.
There were new entrants like AAP and TMC in the fray this time. But all their effort came to nothing as BJP romped home with comfortable majority riding on the immense popularity of PM Modi. Pramod Sawant is going to be sworn in as the Chief Minister once again for a second consecutive term.
The resounding message from these election outcomes is that Mr. Modi’s popularity as the leader of the country is unassailable. The BJP is going to remain the dominant political party in the foreseeable future, up to the next 20 years.
There is a distinct possibility that AAP may emerge as the national alternative to the BJP, given its stupendous success in Punjab. The Congress will be consigned to the dustbins of the Indian Political history in the near future.
This clears the runway for PM Modi to make a smooth landing and win the 2024 parliamentary election with a thumping majority once again.
It is said that a week is a long time in politics, and there are still two years left for the 2024 general election. If the Congress can get its act together, it can still put up a formidable challenge to PM Modi. Anything can happen. But, as of now, it seems the mood of the nation is “Phir Ek Baar, Modi Sarkar.”
edited and proofread by nikita sharma
